Hold onto your wallets, folks—the March CNBC Fed Survey just dropped, and it’s a rollercoaster of economic jitters!
The respondents—fund managers, strategists, and analysts—have cranked the recession dial up to 36% from a chill 23% in January. That’s the highest in six months, wiping out the rosy post-Trump-election vibes faster than you can say “trade war.”
What’s got them spooked? The Trump administration’s fiscal freestyle, especially those pesky tariffs, which have elbowed out inflation as the U.S. economy’s new Public Enemy No. 1.
The mood’s so sour even the S&P 500 outlook took its first hit since September. “Trump’s agenda’s gone off the rails with trade policy,” groans Barry Knapp from Ironsides Macroeconomics, warning of something nastier than a mere “soft patch.”
John Donaldson from Haverford Trust isn’t mincing words either: “The policy volatility? Unprecedented!” Growth forecasts are taking a beating too—2025 GDP’s been slashed to 1.7% from 2.4%, ending a three-survey winning streak.
But don’t despair; they’re betting on a 2.1% bounce-back in 2026. Still, Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research isn’t popping champagne: “Consumer spending risks are leaning hard to the downside—frozen housing market, stingy state budgets, you name it.”
The Fed’s caught in a pickle, though. Most respondents (three-quarters, to be exact) are banking on at least two quarter-point rate cuts this year, figuring tariffs will just spike prices once, not ignite inflation Armageddon.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell might just sit tight—why cut if Trump yanks the tariffs last minute? “Powell’s stuck with this tariff overhang,” sighs Peter Boockvar from Bleakley Financial Group. “Cut too soon, and he’s the guy who cried wolf.”
Over 70% of these economic crystal-ball gazers say tariffs are a triple whammy—bad for inflation, jobs, and growth.
Manufacturing’s a mixed bag: 34% see it shrinking, 22% say “meh,” and 37% think it might actually pump out more widgets.
Meanwhile, Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) slashing jobs left and right? More than 70% call it a growth-killer and job-slayer, though it might nudge prices down a smidge.
Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics isn’t holding back: “A global trade war, DOGE’s wild cuts, mass deportations, and D.C. dysfunction could shove this once-stellar economy right into the recession dumpster.”
So, there you have it—Trump’s tariff tango and DOGE chaos have the experts clutching their spreadsheets and praying for a soft landing. Will Powell cut rates, or will Trump pull a tariff switcheroo?
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