Cocoa prices have taken a dramatic nosedive in early 2026, tumbling nearly 30% in the past month alone and sitting around $3,700 per metric ton—down a staggering 64% from last year’s peaks.
Yet as romantics worldwide reach for heart-shaped boxes this Valentine’s Day, they’re discovering that chocolate remains stubbornly expensive, with U.S. retail prices up 14% so far in 2026 compared to last year.
The mismatch leaves consumers paying premium prices for treats made from yesterday’s sky-high cocoa beans, turning what should be a sweet holiday into a mildly bitter one.
Big manufacturers, locked into forward contracts from the crisis era, can’t slash shelf prices overnight—meaning your romantic gesture might cost more than your date’s expectations, while cocoa farmers in West Africa reel from the sudden price relief that came too late for last season’s crops.
Cocoa futures hit absurd highs above $12,000 per ton in late 2024, thanks to brutal weather and disease hammering West Africa’s dominant supply. Prices then staged a spectacular retreat as harvests improved and new producers stepped up.
The slide accelerated recently, dropping below $4,000 for the first time in years. One might expect chocolate to follow suit, perhaps even trigger a nationwide discount frenzy.
Not so fast. Major players like Mondelez (Cadbury, Toblerone) and Hershey bought their cocoa months—or years—ahead at those painful peaks. Hedging, the financial equivalent of buying insurance against price spikes, now feels like overpaying for yesterday’s lottery ticket.
Mondelez’s CEO Dirk Van de Put admitted the drop caught everyone off guard: “The cocoa price has declined more than anybody would have expected.” Relief, he suggested, might wait until 2027—like promising your sweetheart a better gift next year.
Hershey’s Kirk Tanner echoed the sentiment, noting their hedges sit well above current levels. Last year’s price hikes covered some pain, but not all of 2026’s cocoa hangover.
Other factors pile on. Lingering Trump-era tariffs hit some inventories (though cocoa got a November exemption), while weight-loss drugs and tighter food benefits dent overall sweet cravings. U.S. consumers, feeling the pinch, are spending less freely—prompting companies to think twice before another round of increases.
Valentine’s chocolate stays pricey while cocoa whispers sweet nothings from afar. Small brands buying on the spot market might sneak in deals, but the giants move slower than a melting truffle in July.
For now, the heart-shaped boxes cost what they cost. Love may conquer all, but it doesn’t conquer commodity contracts.
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