Picture this: Donald Trump’s first diplomatic dance with Tehran, and it’s less like a WWE cage match and more like a surprisingly smooth ballroom waltz. The talks in Oman were so chummy, both sides called them “positive” and “constructive”—diplomatic speak for “we didn’t throw any chairs!”
The real kicker? Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, actually agreed to chat directly with Trump’s buddy, Steve Witkoff. That’s like Iran saying, “Fine, we’ll take a call from the guy with the MAGA hat.”
Back in Biden’s day, the Iranians wouldn’t even Zoom with U.S. officials at that level—probably too busy perfecting their “unavailable” status. But Trump’s got a shot at a deal so good, it’s practically a three-scoop sundae with sprinkles.
His one rule? No nukes for Iran. Easy peasy, right? Except nobody’s sure if he’s aiming for a “nuke-free Iran” vibe like Libya’s garage sale of a nuclear program, or just a “let’s keep an eye on those centrifuges” plan with some fancy verification stickers.
Now, the Libya model—where Iran hands over its nuclear toys like a kid caught with too many cookies—is a non-starter. Israel loves pushing it because they know it’s like asking Iran to give up its national pride and its falafel recipe in one go.
It’s a diplomatic dead end, perfect for nudging Trump toward something a bit more… explodey. But Witkoff, sly dog, didn’t even whisper “dismantlement” in Oman. Instead, he and the Iranians kicked around ideas like “maybe fewer nukes, and we’ll throw in some sanctions relief—deal?”
Dismantling sounds like a tough-guy move, like ripping the engine out of Iran’s nuclear Camaro, but it’s about as likely as me winning a Nobel Prize for patience. A verification deal, though? Iran’s already signed one before—they’re basically pros at letting inspectors snoop around. The catch? Their nuclear program’s been bulking up like a bodybuilder on protein shakes since 2015. Rewinding that progress is like trying to un-eat a whole pizza.
But here’s where Trump struts in like a deal-making superhero in a red tie. Unlike Obama, who tiptoed around America’s primary sanctions (the ones that keep U.S. companies from selling so much as a paperclip to Iran), Trump’s ready to toss those sanctions out the window. Obama worried Republicans would scream “you’re selling out for Big Business!” Biden? His guy Rob Malley said he was “meh” about a deal, too busy fretting over Twitter backlash to focus on the nuclear prize.
Trump, though? He sees sanctions as a buzzkill for American companies. He’s practically itching to let Boeing and Burger King set up shop in Tehran. And since Iran’s nuclear program is now less “science project” and more “sci-fi blockbuster,” Trump’s willingness to lift those sanctions might just be the secret sauce to turn back the clock to 2016. Think of it as a “more-for-more” deal—Trump offers more carrots; Iran dials back the uranium glow sticks.
Stick with this verification plan, keep the red line at “no nukes,” and Trump could pull off a diplomatic hat trick: no Iranian bomb, no war, and a boatload of new jobs from American businesses flooding Iran’s markets.
Oh, and let’s not forget the cash. Sanctions have been like a bad ex for the U.S. economy, costing $135 billion to $175 billion in export revenue from 1995 to 2012. That’s enough to buy every American a fancy coffee… or 66,000 lost jobs a year. In 2008, it was a whopping 279,000 jobs flushed away.
If Trump keeps his eye on the nuclear ball and doesn’t get distracted by Iran’s missiles or their pals like Hezbollah and the Houthis, he’s got a shot at a deal that’s less “art of the deal” and more “art of the steal.” A verification-based plan, some sanctions relief, and boom—American companies are back in Tehran, Iran’s nuclear program is on a diet, and the U.S. scores a triple win. Who knew diplomacy could be this… profitable?
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