Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, gave a speech Friday that sounded more like a thriller movie trailer. He warned regulators that there will be a “crack” in the bond market and said they would “panic” when it happens. His delivery was calm, but his message was clear: buckle up, buttercup.
Dimon made the remarks at an event hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation. Some regulators were in attendance, which must have made for a cozy atmosphere. He has long criticized banking rules, especially those involving leverage ratios, which he claims are doing about as much for the bond market as a screen door on a submarine.
The bond market had a shaky April, causing investors to rethink their life choices. Trump called bond traders “yippy,” paused some tariffs, and stocks bounced back in May. The S&P 500 is nearly flat for the year, which is better than your average bowl of airline pretzels.
Treasury prices, though, are still struggling. The 10-year yield rose to 4.418% and the 30-year hit 4.931%, both up about 25 basis points in May. That’s the biggest jump this year, which is great if you’re into drama but not so much if you’re trying to sleep at night.
Tom di Galoma of Mischler Financial Group disagreed with Dimon’s forecast. He said he thought the bond market was already broken in April. Recent Treasury auctions went smoothly, and the Fed and Treasury have tools ready if things get spicy again. Di Galoma seems like the kind of guy who brings an umbrella just in case, but also owns sunscreen.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants lower 10-year yields to help the housing market catch its breath. He’s working with regulators on changes to the supplementary leverage ratio. Results could come this summer, which is also when most people try to avoid getting sunburned or financially burned.
During past crises, the Fed bought trillions in Treasurys to keep markets running. The Treasury Department is now repurchasing less-traded bonds to boost liquidity. It’s like giving the market a sip of water when it’s parched, but not chugging the whole bottle.
Still, worries linger. A big GOP tax and spending bill could widen the deficit. That might mean more Treasurys flooding the market, which could keep rates high. Investors are also nervous about Trump’s tariff tantrums and how foreign buyers might react. Courts are involved now too, which never simplifies anything.
Last week, a weak 20-year Treasury auction rattled nerves. Stocks dropped, proving once again that nothing says fun like financial uncertainty. But Dimon, ever the optimist, said he won’t panic. “We’ll be fine,” he declared, before walking offstage and checking his portfolio on his phone.
JPMorgan shares dipped slightly Friday but remain up over 10% this year. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% in 2025, while the Nasdaq dropped 1%. The Dow was down 0.6%, which isn’t great, but at least it didn’t throw a tantrum.
So, while Dimon’s warning echoes through boardrooms and regulator meetings, the rest of the world continues to swipe left on bad news and buy snacks online. The bond market may crack, but until then, life goes on — and so does the stock rally, for now.
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