Copper soared past $12,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange today, marking a fresh all-time high and putting the metal on track for its strongest annual gain since 2009. A potent mix of mine disruptions worldwide and traders frantically stockpiling in the US ahead of potential tariffs has turned this essential commodity into the market’s unlikely star.
The rally’s real comedy lies in its resilience—prices climbing more than a third this year even as China’s demand, which gobbles up half the world’s copper, quietly fades. Manufacturers outside the US now scramble in bidding wars for dwindling supplies, proving that nothing spices up global trade like a good dose of uncertainty.
Analysts warn of looming deficits, with Morgan Stanley forecasting the worst shortfall in over two decades next year—around 600,000 tons. That’s enough copper to wire every new AI data center twice over, yet here we are, watching prices party on while inventories hold steady for now.
Copper powers everything from electric vehicles to renewable grids and the insatiable servers behind artificial intelligence. Investors have piled in, betting on a green energy boom just as supply hits repeated snags.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the promising Kamoa-Kakula mine kicked off the year with impressive output gains. Then seismic activity caused flooding in May, politely reminding everyone that underground work comes with surprises.
Chile’s state-owned Codelco faced its own drama at the El Teniente mine. A July rock blast tragically claimed six lives and paused operations for over a week, threatening the company’s long-held title as the world’s top producer.
Not to be outdone, Indonesia’s massive Grasberg mine, operated by Freeport-McMoRan, went offline in September after a fatal mudslide. Nature, it seems, has a knack for timing these interruptions perfectly.
Several major miners have quietly lowered production forecasts this year. Deutsche Bank notes a 3% drop in output from the biggest players, with more declines possible in 2026.
The tariff threat from President Trump’s agenda has traders shipping record volumes to US shores, front-running any new barriers. This rush leaves the rest of the world competing for scraps, pushing prices higher despite softer underlying demand.
Banks remain bullish—Citigroup floats a $15,000 scenario if rate cuts loosen purses further. Even skeptics like Goldman Sachs call copper their top industrial pick, recently upgrading next year’s forecast to $11,400 a ton.
Past rallies have fizzled when Chinese buyers balked at high costs. This time, supply woes and trade twists keep the momentum alive, turning what should be a straightforward market into a gripping spectacle.
Other metals joined the fun today, with nickel jumping as much as 4.6% on Indonesia’s proposed production cuts. Copper, though, steals the spotlight with its blend of real shortages and speculative flair.
As the year ends, the copper market looks poised for more volatility. Deficits may deepen, but so could the clever maneuvers traders use to navigate them.
Leave a Reply