Beijing announced provisional anti-subsidy tariffs of up to 42.7% on certain European dairy products, starting Tuesday, in a move widely viewed as payback for the EU’s duties on Chinese electric vehicles. The measures target cheeses and creams that have long enjoyed a premium spot in Chinese markets, potentially reshaping holiday cheese boards across the globe.
French producers, already navigating an agricultural crisis with abundant milk supplies, now face a particularly sharp sting from these tariffs. With France exporting around €600 million annually to China in recent years, industry voices warn of widened competitiveness gaps against duty-free rivals like New Zealand.
European farmers and companies could feel a lasting ripple through the value chain, as access to one of the world’s largest markets tightens just when overproduction is a headache. Meanwhile, competitors from Oceania stand to gain, quietly toasting with extra slices.
China’s Ministry of Commerce revealed the provisional duties after a 16-month investigation concluded that EU subsidies, including those under the Common Agricultural Policy, had caused material injury to domestic producers.
The tariffs, ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% depending on the company, will be collected as cash deposits beginning December 23.
Affected products include fresh and processed cheeses, blue-veined varieties, and creams—items where Europe has built a reputation for quality that Chinese consumers have eagerly embraced.
France emerges as the hardest hit, serving as Europe’s top exporter of these goods to China, with shipments worth $181.7 million in the first 11 months of this year. That figure pales beside New Zealand’s dominance, clocking in at over six times more, thanks to favorable trade terms.
Italy, the Netherlands, and Denmark also feature prominently among suppliers now facing higher costs. Beijing framed the decision carefully, noting it launched no new probes this year and finalized only three anti-dumping cases, contrasting with Brussels’ busier docket of 18 final rulings and 15 new investigations.
The EU wasted no time pushing back, with spokesman Olof Gill labeling the measures “unjustified” based on “questionable allegations” and thin evidence—echoing recent complaints over pork duties.
This dairy development follows a pattern: probes into EU brandy and pork, with final pork tariffs recently softened considerably from provisional highs. Negotiations on the underlying EV tariffs resumed this month, though no breakthroughs have emerged, leaving diplomats noting persistent gaps.
A French industry spokeswoman described potential lasting effects on the sector’s economic balance amid high production levels. Warnings from late November highlighted “major consequences” for farmers if the Chinese door narrowed further.
Notably, the president of France’s National Federation of the Dairy Industry joined President Macron’s recent state visit to China—perhaps hoping for a smoother resolution over shared meals. Provisional status means rates could adjust in the final ruling, offering a sliver of hope that not all cheeses will age under extra pressure.
For now, European exporters might find themselves pondering alternatives, while Chinese shoppers could see familiar imported wheels become rarer treats.
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