The razor-sharp hype around Pop Mart’s Labubu monster dolls is drawing eerie parallels to the great Beanie Babies bust of the ’90s, with one bold analyst warning that the party’s fangs are about to retract.
Investors, still nursing dopamine hangovers from the toy’s scarcity-fueled surge, might soon trade their hunts for handkerchiefs as shares teeter on the edge of a plush precipice.
Melinda Hu, the lone voice of caution amid a chorus of buy-happy analysts at Bernstein in Hong Kong, likens Labubu’s allure to Beanie Babies’ pellet-packed pandemonium.
“The scarcity, the hunt, the dopamine hit, and that wild secondary market,” she quips, sound like a collector’s fever dream scripted by a casino owner moonlighting as a toy designer.
Pop Mart International Group Ltd., the Beijing-based blind-box baron, has ridden Labubu’s coattails to glory, with the “Monsters” series chomping 35% of first-half revenue—up from a modest 14% nibble last year. Yet Hu, the only analyst slapping a “sell” sticker on the stock, urges long-term holders to pause before piling in without a strategic snack switch-up.
The shares, once a rocket fueled by 1,500% gains from last year’s launchpad to August’s apex, have nosedived over 30% since. A live-stream slip-up didn’t help: an employee dared to whisper the unthinkable price tag on a blind-box bauble, sending viewers—and valuations—into a collective gasp.
Out of 46 analysts tracking the toymaker, 42 still wave “buy” flags like overcaffeinated cheerleaders, with three opting for a limp “hold.” Hu’s “underperform” call on October 16 has coincided with a 25% share slide, proving her contrarian charm might just be the porcupine in the plush party.
Her track record? A modest 5% average loss for followers over six months, edging out peers’ 2.7% dips—because sometimes, being slightly less wrong feels like winning the participation trophy. Covering heavyweights like ANTA Sports and Shiseido, Hu’s seven years at Bernstein have honed her eye for consumer quirks that bite back.
Trader jitters are piling up like unsold Labubu knockoffs. Short interest, that sneaky bet against the stock, has spiked to 2.8% of free float—the highest since April—hinting whispers of worry are turning into a full-throated growl.
Remember Beanie Babies? Those beanbag critters ballooned into ’90s investment icons, only to deflate into dusty drawer dwellers by 1999, courtesy of TY Inc.’s unlisted overreach. Labubu, with its elf-eared, fang-baring grin, risks the same stuffed fate if Pop Mart can’t conjure fresh intellectual properties to share the spotlight.
The October 23 earnings? A third-quarter beat that landed like a half-eaten candy bar—sweet enough to savor, but leaving everyone hungry for more. Shares tanked 9% anyway, as Labubu’s dominance sparked fears of a 2026 slowdown sharper than a monster’s incisor.
Hu boils the bull-bear brawl down to one cheeky query: Can Pop Mart escape Labubu’s loving stranglehold and unleash new IPs to reignite the revenue romp? Without it, the dopamine dealers might find their next big thing is just a big nothing.
For now, collectors hoard their horned darlings, blissfully blind to the boardroom blues. But as one analyst’s sell signal echoes through the toy aisles, even the most devoted might wonder if their prized Labubu is less lifelong companion and more fleeting fling.
In the end, the real monster under the bed? A market that turns tiny terrors into trillion-dollar teases, only to yawn and hit the lights.
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