As Iran’s streets simmer with unrest and the regime clings to power like a cat to a curtain in a hurricane, the United States finds itself pondering a familiar question: to strike or not to strike?
President Donald Trump, fresh off toppling Venezuela’s government less than two weeks ago, has been eyeing Iran—the world’s sixth-largest oil producer—as the next potential chapter in his “America First, but Make It Dramatic” foreign policy playbook.
The administration is weighing military options after the Iranian government’s deadly crackdown on protesters crossed one of Trump’s self-drawn red lines, though the president now says he’s content to “watch and see” what unfolds.
The impact on global energy markets has been predictably theatrical. Oil prices jitterbugged above $61 a barrel midweek on fears of supply chaos, only to tumble back below $60 after Trump hinted an attack wasn’t imminent. Traders are placing bets on potential Strait of Hormuz blockades—one-fifth of the world’s daily crude squeezes through that narrow waterway Iran conveniently overlooks.
A serious disruption could send prices soaring, turning your morning coffee run into a luxury expense. Yet Iran’s oil infrastructure remains in decent shape compared to Venezuela’s crumbling setup, so any post-regime-change government might actually unlock more barrels rather than fewer—assuming the new bosses play nice with sanctions lifters. For now, the market’s nerves are frayed, but not yet in full meltdown mode.
Protests erupted across Iran, fueled by economic grievances that morphed into calls for an end to theocratic rule. Security forces responded with lethal force, pushing the death toll into the hundreds or higher, depending on whose count you trust. Trump, never one to whisper when a megaphone is handy, warned that the U.S. would come to the protesters’ rescue if killings continued, even posting that “help is on its way.”
He was briefed on strike options ranging from targeted hits to broader operations, but avoided oil facilities in past actions—like last June’s strikes on nuclear sites that kept crude prices from spiking too wildly.
Iran’s oil game is no small potatoes. The country pumps about 3.2 million barrels daily—roughly 4% of global supply—despite sanctions that force it into shadow fleets and steep discounts to its top buyer, China (97% of exports in 2024). Reserves sit at a whopping 209 billion barrels, third only to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
Back in the Shah’s day, output hit 6.5 million barrels daily; today’s sanctioned reality is a fraction of that potential. Experts note Iran matters far more to oil markets than Venezuela ever did—disruptions here ripple harder and faster.
The Strait of Hormuz looms large in everyone’s anxiety dreams. Iran controls the northern side of this choke point. If the regime lashes out in retaliation, chaos could ensue. One analyst quipped that traders are essentially wagering on geopolitical bingo, with the strait as the blackout square. Yet when tensions flared before, prices surged then settled once it became clear strikes stayed surgical and responses symbolic.
If the ayatollah’s grip slips away, Iran’s economy—surprisingly diversified for a sanctioned state, with oil comprising only 10-15% of GDP—might adapt. The regime leans heavily on crude for half its revenue, though. A friendlier successor could revive production, flood the market with transparency long absent, and perhaps ease prices long-term. U.S. oil firms, burned by low margins and political risks, aren’t exactly packing suitcases for Tehran yet. Stability first, profits later.
The regime’s infrastructure hasn’t crumbled like Venezuela’s, giving any new government a head start. But everything hinges on what emerges post-Khamenei—if anything does. Uncertainty alone keeps oil traders reaching for antacids.
In the end, Trump’s administration appears to be threading the needle between tough talk and caution, evacuating some personnel from regional bases as a precaution while claiming assurances that killings have eased. The world watches, wallets open, hoping the next plot twist doesn’t involve $100 oil.
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