BEIJING—China’s economic engines showed signs of sputtering in November, with industrial output growing at its slowest pace in 15 months and retail sales delivering their feeblest performance since the abrupt end of zero-COVID restrictions three years ago.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported Monday that factory output rose just 4.8 percent year-on-year, down from October’s 4.9 percent and shy of the 5.0 percent economists had penciled in—perhaps those factories decided a slight slowdown was in order before the holiday rush.
The underwhelming figures quickly rippled through markets, sending Chinese stocks lower as investors digested the reality of fading consumer incentives and a property sector that continues to weigh on confidence like an uninvited guest who won’t leave.
With trade-in subsidies winding down and households still cautious amid ongoing real estate troubles, the data underscored a growing urgency for fresh stimulus, even as officials appear content that this year’s roughly 5 percent growth target remains within reach—much like a marathon runner conserving energy for the final stretch into 2026.
Industrial output’s 4.8 percent gain marked the weakest since August 2024.
Retail sales limped to 1.3 percent growth, far below the anticipated 2.8 percent and a sharp drop from October’s 2.9 percent.
This post-zero-COVID low in consumption arrived just as consumer trade-in programs, once a bright spot for appliance and auto sales, began to lose steam.
Exports have admirably propped up growth this year, helping offset domestic softness.
Yet with a $1 trillion trade surplus irking partners worldwide, barriers are rising faster than one might expect for a strategy once seen as reliable.
Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noted that strong overseas demand reduced the urgency for bold domestic boosts earlier in the year.
Now, with subsidies tapering, policymakers seem to be shifting focus to next year—no rush for extra measures when the annual target looks secure.
The property crisis added to the gloom, as developer China Vanke scrambled to avert a debt default, further denting sentiment in a sector that has long influenced household spending decisions.
Fixed-asset investment continued to contract, reflecting broader caution.
High-tech manufacturing offered a silver lining, outpacing overall growth.
Equipment sectors showed resilience, hinting at structural shifts underway.
Still, the contrast between robust supply and hesitant demand remains stark.
Analysts suggest Beijing’s proactive fiscal stance for 2026 could spur more consumption.
For now, the economy marches on, relying heavily on exports while domestic engines warm up slowly.
Chinese stocks felt the pinch, compounded by real estate worries.
Investors eyed potential policy tweaks ahead.
The data painted a picture of an economy in transition, strong in production but needing a stronger nudge on the demand side.
As trading partners eye import curbs, sustainability questions loom larger.
Policymakers, undeterred, appear poised for measured steps into the new year.
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