US consumer sentiment clawed its way up from rock-bottom despair to merely profound pessimism in November, according to the University of Michigan’s final survey released Friday.
The index rose to 51 from a preliminary reading of 50.3 — a rebound so modest it barely qualifies as exercise — after the longest government shutdown in history finally wrapped up on November 12.
This slight improvement spared the nation the indignity of matching its all-time low, but the mood remains firmly in territory last visited when gas prices and existential dread were having their moment in 2022.
The shutdown, which dragged on for over a month and disrupted everything from national parks to paychecks, had initially sent sentiment plunging. Consumers apparently noticed that federal workers were not, in fact, volunteering their time out of patriotic enthusiasm.
Once the funding deal kicked in — good through the end of January, because nothing says “fiscal responsibility” like kicking the can down a very short road — Americans rewarded policymakers with a whopping 0.7-point bump in optimism.
Yet celebrations were muted. Stubborn inflation continues to hover like an uninvited guest who keeps raiding the fridge.
Health insurance premiums are poised to spike faster than caffeine-fueled stock traders. The unemployment rate sits higher than it did a year ago, quietly judging everyone’s life choices.
A full 69 percent of consumers now expect unemployment to rise over the next year — more than double last November’s figure, suggesting the only thing spreading faster than holiday cheer is job-loss anxiety.
The perceived odds of personally getting laid off reached their highest level since 2020, when “unprecedented times” was still fresh jargon.
Young adults aged 18-34 are particularly upbeat about their prospects, with fears of job loss in the next five years hitting the worst level since 2012. Nothing says “adulting” like peak millennial/Gen Z financial terror redux.
Views of current personal finances dropped about 15 percent, proving that money may not buy happiness, but its absence certainly buys spreadsheets full of despair.
Year-ahead inflation expectations eased ever so slightly to 4.5 percent from 4.6 percent in October — a dip so tiny it required scientific instruments to detect.
“Cost-of-living concerns and income worries dominate consumer views of the economy across the country,” noted Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, in a statement that doubled as a universal American autobiography.
Even consumers with hefty stock portfolios saw their brief November mood boost evaporate amid recent market dips. Wealth, it turns out, provides only temporary insulation from reality.
As Black Friday approaches, retailers can take comfort in knowing shoppers are arriving pre-equipped with the emotional resilience of wet cardboard.
Economists describe the 29 percent year-over-year plunge in sentiment as “statistically significant,” which is academic speak for “yeah, it’s bad.”
The temporary funding patch expires in January, ensuring that holiday gatherings will feature at least one relative predicting another shutdown. Family bonding at its finest.
For now, Americans march toward the new year with sentiment hovering just above historic lows — a performance best described as “participation trophy economics.”
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