Traders are warning that Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, due after the bell on Wednesday, could trigger a one-day market-value swing of $320 billion – enough money to buy every NFL team, rename them the “AI Avengers,” and still have change for the popcorn.
Options markets have priced in a 7% move in either direction. At Nvidia’s current $4.6 trillion valuation, that casual wiggle would shatter the company’s own record for the largest single-day value change ever recorded after earnings.
For context, the previous champion was a mere $276 billion leap in February 2024. Clearly, Nvidia looked at that number and said, “Cute, but let’s add another Portugal.”
Analysts at ORATS note the stock has averaged a 7.3% hop, skip, or face-plant the day after earnings over the past three years. Consistency is comforting until you realize the hop could be straight off a cliff.
Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna, called Nvidia “the anchor of the AI capex trade.” Translation: when Nvidia sneezes, the entire tech sector reaches for tissues and a Xanax.
Murphy added that the results will signal whether the AI boom is revving into another gear or simply needs a long, awkward digestive nap. Markets hate naps almost as much as they hate missing them.
With an 8% weighting in the S&P 500, Nvidia’s report isn’t just about one company. It’s the quarterly referendum on whether corporations will keep pouring concrete for data centers faster than ancient Romans built aqueducts.
The broader tech sector has already started sweating. Shares have wobbled lately amid whispers that maybe, just maybe, everyone got a little too excited about teaching computers to write bad poetry.
Nvidia itself is only up 38% this year after a 10% haircut from its October peak. Somewhere, a value investor is nodding solemnly while secretly checking the price every thirty seconds.
High-profile shareholders have been tiptoeing toward the exit. Peter Thiel’s hedge fund and SoftBank reportedly lightened their loads faster than a dieter abandoning New Year’s resolutions.
Investors will scour the earnings call for any hint that demand is softening. One hesitant “um” from Jensen Huang could send more money running for the hills than a Black Friday sale.
Jason Pride at Glenmede summed it up neatly: Nvidia’s numbers will shape views on business investment and AI spending trends. In other words, the fate of several trillion dollars rests on how convincingly one man in a leather jacket can say “everything is fine.”
Wall Street has already stocked up on antacids. Some traders have reportedly started stress-eating graphics cards.
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