More than a third of Manhattan condo resales from July 2024 to June 2025 fetched less than their purchase price, turning the dream of real estate riches into a collective sigh of “shoulda rented.” Yet amid the gloom, the penthouse crowd pocketed tidy profits, proving that in the Big Apple, your view—and your wallet—still matters most.
The report from Brown Harris Stevens paints a portrait of stasis sharper than a skyline silhouette. Median condo prices per square foot? Essentially unchanged since 2015, like that one houseplant you keep watering out of sheer optimism.
Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, sums it up with the grace of a traffic jam: “Manhattan has essentially been moving sideways.” Sideways, folks—like a tipsy tourist dodging taxis, going nowhere fast while the rest of America zooms ahead on a home-price joyride.
Nationally, only 2% of pre-pandemic sellers risk a loss, per Redfin, fueling affordability headaches everywhere but here. In Manhattan, though, the median sale hit $1.2 million last quarter, averaging nearly $2 million—numbers that whisper “exclusive” while shouting “ouch” to the average Joe.
Timing, it seems, is the real co-star in this drama. Buyers who scooped up condos before 2010? They’re toasting median gains of 29% to 45%, relics of a post-crisis bounce that peaked in 2016 like a champagne cork at a gala.
Those who dove in from 2011 to 2015? A modest 11% pat on the back, enough for a decent brunch but not the yacht you daydreamed about. Enter the real villains: post-2016 purchasers, where half from 2016-2020 sold at a loss, and 2021-2024 buyers nursed slim margins slimmer than a model’s waistline.
But wait—there’s the fine print that turns “loss” into “catastrophe.” Toss in 6% to 10% transaction fees, sneaky renovations, monthly maintenance fees that could fund a small nation, and taxes that bite harder than a bodega hot dog. Oh, and inflation? It’s up 36% over the decade, per Columbia’s Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.
Picture a 2015 buyer selling today at the same nominal price: zero percent return sounds neutral, until inflation slaps you with a 36% real-term gut punch. “Surprising,” Van Nieuwerburgh notes dryly, “since many think real estate hedges inflation like a trusty umbrella in a drizzle.” Instead, it’s more like borrowing that umbrella and getting caught in a monsoon.
Nationally, the Case-Shiller index ballooned 89% in the same span—far outpacing inflation and leaving Manhattan’s condos in the dust, pondering their life choices. Blame games abound: the 2018 SALT deduction cap squeezed high earners like a too-tight tux, while 2019’s rent laws stirred the pot further.
Then came COVID’s great escape to Florida, sparking fears of a ghost town exodus—only for demand to boomerang back faster than a bad Tinder date. Yet through it all, the ultra-luxury lane gleams untouched: $10 million-plus pads delivered double-digit wins across cohorts, buoyed by Wall Street’s endless cash parade.
Miller credits the top 4%: “Financial markets and cash buys, independent of interest rates.” Indeed, two-thirds of Q3 deals were all-cash, double the historical norm—because nothing says “stability” like dropping millions without a loan officer’s nod.
Brokers like Jared Antin at Brown Harris Stevens stay sunny: “Losses? Negligible. This market’s blue-chip stable.” Bullish on the rebound, he eyes 2020-2021 dip-buyers for future windfalls, as if the market’s just taking a quick nap before its next strut.
Still, jitters linger. High-end contracts over $4 million plunged 39% in September, per Olshan Realty—not from demand drought, but inventory vanishing like keys in a couch. Add the mayoral race whispers, with democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in the mix, and buyers huddle in rentals.
Wealthy households earning over $1 million? Their renter ranks doubled to 5,661 from 2019-2023, per RentCafe—opting for lease-life over buy-bind, because who needs equity when you can binge-watch from a pied-à-terre?
Miller tempers the policy panic: “Downside risks exist, but fears are usually overblown—like that one relative’s holiday predictions.” In this sideways saga, opportunity knocks softly: for sellers timing their exit, and buyers spotting the dip’s silver lining.
Leave a Reply